The safe play here I felt was correct by a somewhat large margin. There are too many blots lyin' around after hitting 13/10* 13/11. Notice I didn't say too many shots, not exactly at least. I found the position quite interesting and started thinking ahead on "what I would do if X happened". For eg. if you do bring two down and hit and I roll a 4-1 I see it very clear that I play bar/21 2/1* because of your complete lack of board, all those blots floating around, and I can't simply let you play. After the safe play I will obviously hit loose with any number that allows me to do so but with no immediate direct cover and a 'clean' position I feel it's your best route to victory. You'll most likely get a couple of shots at my 'loose hit blot' and even if you do manage to not hit it, you'll be able to enter on the ace for quite some time and scrap together something since my men are far enough away to think about closing you out immediately.
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 24/21 9/7 | -0.073 | |
| 0.8% 10.4% 44.7% 55.3% 23.7% 0.5% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.236 ±0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 22685 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 13/10* 13/11 | -0.111 (-0.038) | |
| 1.2% 12.2% 44.3% 55.7% 26.7% 2.6% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.273 ±0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 21123 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||