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2 unit cap money game puzzler (2nd correction)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 3:15 p.m.

In Response To: 2 unit cap money game puzzler (2nd correction) (Rich Munitz)

In Rich's last position the Top player should double from the roof, even though he's not a favorite to win the game. The position, Top player on roll:

Cube is capped at 2

White	41
Blue	37
Position ID: twMAAL1tBwAAAA Match ID: cAlAAAAAAAAA

By doubling Top gets full equity for his 48% GWC.

If Top doesn't double and fans, Bottom has a double that Top can take (Top wins ~30%). Doubling now neither gains nor loses so we can ignore these sequences.

If Top doesn't double and hits, he loses his market nearly all the time. About the only exceptional sequences are: (a) 6-1 followed by 6-6 (74% GWC) and (b) 6-4 followed by 5-5 -- but even here doubling now doesn't hurt, because after 6-4 ... 5-5 ... fan ... Bottom doubles and Top takes with 29% GWC.

For instance, 6-2 ... fan (92% GWC), 6-2 ... 4-3, and even 6-2 ... 6-6 (80% GWC), are all passes. Another for instance: 6-4 ... 4-1 -> 85% GWC. If Bottom fans, Top's GWC is 91-98%.

So ... in the 11/36 times Top hits, he can either (a) double now and win approximately (let's conservately say) .83-.17 * 2 = 1.3 points per game, or (b) not double and win very close to 1 point per game. Since the other 25/36 sequences don't matter, Top should double now.

Messages In This Thread

• 2 unit cap money game puzzler
  bob koca -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 10:36 p.m.
  • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
    Alejandro -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 10:55 p.m.
    • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
      bob koca -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:17 p.m.
      • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
        Alejandro -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:23 p.m.
        • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
          bob koca -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:31 p.m.
        • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
          Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:33 p.m.
  • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:09 p.m.
    • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
      bob koca -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:20 p.m.
      • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:31 p.m.
  • 2 unit cap money game puzzler -- spoiler
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:39 p.m.
    • 2 unit cap money game puzzler -- spoiler
      bob koca -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 12:23 a.m.
      • 2 unit cap money game puzzler -- correction
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:46 a.m.
        • 2 unit cap money game puzzler -- correction
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
  • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
    Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 2:05 a.m.
    • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 5:39 p.m.
  • 2 unit cap money game puzzler
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 4:52 a.m.
    • 2 unit cap money game puzzler (correction)
      Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 5:01 a.m.
      • 2 unit cap money game puzzler (correction)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 5:35 p.m.
      • 2 unit cap money game puzzler (2nd correction)
        Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 9:44 p.m.
        • 2 unit cap money game puzzler (2nd correction)
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 10:06 p.m.
        • 2 unit cap money game puzzler (2nd correction)
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
          • (last correction, one can hope)
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 3:26 p.m.