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Rollout at money

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Friday, 18 June 2010, at 11:25 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout at money (Timothy Chow)

I know a number of 3rd-roll-dance positions for money now, but don't have a good sense of how to adjust them ATS.

For short matches, the adjustment is quite dramatic. Its direction is relatively obvious but its size is enormous in almost all cases. (46k rollouts, sd low enough for the second decimal digit to be accurate).

64R-55A-F-C with G11 match equity table. For reference : money 0.68 -> 0.80
on roll V -2 -3 -4 -5
-2 0.72 -> 0.73 0.64 -> 0.05 0.49 -> -0.70 0.64 -> -0.40
-3 0.97 -> 1.35 0.77 -> 0.99 0.65 -> 0.46 0.60 -> 0.43
-4 0.98 -> 1.81 0.94 -> 1.63 0.83 -> 1.32 0.80 -> 1.13
-5 0.85 -> 1.28 0.82 -> 1.17 0.74 -> 1.06 0.72 -> 0.91

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