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54S-21H-31 and 54S-41H-31

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:18 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)


1O ' ' '1X4X '3X ' '1X4O

2X ' ' ' '5O '4O ' ' '4X

54S-21H-31 (W is a big mistake)



1O ' ' '1X4X '3X1X ' '4O

2X ' ' ' '5O '4O ' ' '4X

54S-41H-31 (W is a good play)


Thanks for the RO, Stick.

In my previous post, I accidentally reported the cubeless data from the old truncated RO result I had. The cubeful trunc result (2k trials for the two top plays, 972 for the third and 324 for the bottom two) is 54S-21H-31 [U V5 W45 D50 751] 2t.

Your result for the same position is XG 3-ply [U V17] 5k. There's still variance, so FWIW my current best guess of value is around [U V11].

What just caught my eye, though, is that the (1k) trunc for the right-hand position above 54S-41H-31 is [W U1 V10 C30]. The W play (Wild, Bar/22 6/5) is basically tied with U instead of being .045 behind, presumably due to 4 duplication and pressure on the 9pt blot. Would you be interested in full-rolling the right-hand position (and/or adding W to the rollout of the left-hand position)?

Key: U = Up (Bar/21), V = Variant-Up (Bar/22 24/23), W = Wild (Bar/22 6/5), D = Down (Bar/24 13/10), 7 = Bar/22 8/7, C = Cross (Bar/24 8/5).

Error sizes are in thousandths, and "k" is the number of trials (in thousands, rounded down). For example, "[U V17] 5k" means that U is best and V is -.017 after 5000+ trials.

Nack

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