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Closing Optional - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Closing Optional (Daniel Murphy)

OTB I played 10/4 9/7 in the last of these five positions. But the rollouts say that as White's board weakens, 10/4 7/5 becomes more and more attractive. That play has both more upside and downside but White's poorer board structures give Blue more ways to recover from a White joker.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 6: Blue to play 62

White	65
Blue	88
Position ID: d3cDAEBL27YAAA Match ID: QgkLAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/4 9/7	+0.3156
			0.6995 0.0311 0.0006 - 0.3005 0.0452 0.0002 +0.3852 +0.3156 0.0019 0.0017 0.0002 - 0.0019 0.0017 0.0001 0.0041 0.0067
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/4 7/5	+0.1893 ( -0.1263)
			0.6600 0.0233 0.0007 - 0.3400 0.0850 0.0012 +0.2579 +0.1893 0.0017 0.0015 0.0002 - 0.0017 0.0022 0.0006 0.0039 0.0073
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/4 8/6	+0.1741 ( -0.1414)
			0.6475 0.0259 0.0007 - 0.3525 0.0789 0.0004 +0.2422 +0.1741 0.0017 0.0014 0.0002 - 0.0017 0.0023 0.0001 0.0037 0.0099
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	10/2	+0.1535 ( -0.1621)
			0.6285 0.0167 0.0003 - 0.3715 0.0435 0.0002 +0.2303 +0.1535 0.0017 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0017 0.0029 0.0000 0.0046 0.0089
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	58
Blue	88
Position ID: 790BAEBL27YAAA Match ID: QgkLAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/4 9/7	+0.3595
			0.7197 0.0230 0.0004 - 0.2803 0.0272 0.0001 +0.4354 +0.3595 0.0018 0.0010 0.0001 - 0.0018 0.0013 0.0000 0.0036 0.0049
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/4 7/5	+0.2904 ( -0.0691)
			0.6958 0.0201 0.0003 - 0.3042 0.0549 0.0002 +0.3569 +0.2904 0.0016 0.0011 0.0001 - 0.0016 0.0018 0.0001 0.0036 0.0060
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/4 8/6	+0.2453 ( -0.1142)
			0.6767 0.0204 0.0004 - 0.3233 0.0535 0.0002 +0.3204 +0.2453 0.0015 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0015 0.0020 0.0001 0.0034 0.0054
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	10/2	+0.2258 ( -0.1337)
			0.6608 0.0176 0.0003 - 0.3392 0.0297 0.0001 +0.3097 +0.2258 0.0017 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0017 0.0016 0.0000 0.0037 0.0068
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	52
Blue	88
Position ID: 3/cAAEBL27YAAA Match ID: QgkLAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/4 9/7	+0.4361
			0.7517 0.0274 0.0004 - 0.2483 0.0195 0.0000 +0.5117 +0.4361 0.0007 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0016 0.0023
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/4 7/5	+0.4314 ( -0.0047)
			0.7520 0.0295 0.0005 - 0.2480 0.0338 0.0001 +0.5001 +0.4314 0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0007 0.0000 0.0016 0.0024
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/4 8/6	+0.3853 ( -0.0508)
			0.7281 0.0286 0.0008 - 0.2719 0.0328 0.0000 +0.4528 +0.3853 0.0013 0.0014 0.0003 - 0.0013 0.0015 0.0000 0.0029 0.0077
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	47
Blue	88
Position ID: v38AAEBL27YAAA Match ID: QgkLAAAAAAAA

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.012)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	10/4 7/5	+0.5190
			0.7880 0.0281 0.0004 - 0.2120 0.0258 0.0000 +0.5786 +0.5190 0.0007 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0000 0.0016 0.0024
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	10/4 9/7	+0.5065 ( -0.0125)
			0.7800 0.0267 0.0004 - 0.2200 0.0171 0.0000 +0.5699 +0.5065 0.0007 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0005 0.0001 0.0015 0.0021
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/4 8/6	+0.4662 ( -0.0528)
			0.7653 0.0276 0.0004 - 0.2347 0.0263 0.0000 +0.5322 +0.4662 0.0012 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0028 0.0038
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			425 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	39
Blue	88
Position ID: /z8AAEBL27YAAA Match ID: QgkLAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/4 7/5	+0.6292
			0.8259 0.0378 0.0004 - 0.1741 0.0235 0.0000 +0.6665 +0.6292 0.0008 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0007 0.0000 0.0019 0.0023
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/4 9/7	+0.5994 ( -0.0298)
			0.8121 0.0354 0.0005 - 0.1879 0.0182 0.0000 +0.6418 +0.5994 0.0007 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0000 0.0018 0.0021
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/4 8/6	+0.5903 ( -0.0388)
			0.8074 0.0370 0.0004 - 0.1926 0.0223 0.0000 +0.6299 +0.5903 0.0007 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0018 0.0026
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892605718 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

1. Cubeful 2-ply 10/4 7/5 Eq.: +0.5641

0.8046 0.0394 0.0008 - 0.1954 0.0188 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Cubeful 2-ply 10/4 9/7 Eq.: +0.5569 ( -0.0072)

0.7988 0.0381 0.0007 - 0.2012 0.0108 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3. Cubeful 2-ply 10/4 8/6 Eq.: +0.5243 ( -0.0398)

0.7886 0.0376 0.0006 - 0.2114 0.0189 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Closing Optional
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 4:15 p.m.
  • Closing Optional
    Stick -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 4:38 p.m.
    • Closing Optional
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 9:40 p.m.
  • Closing Optional - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 4:54 p.m.
    • Closing Optional - RO
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:54 p.m.