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Rollout eXtension

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 11:09 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout eXtension (Stick)

54S-21H-31

Like I said, you really have to devalue the rollout when done by one CB.

Perhaps Chuck was just seeing if he could goad you into extending. :)

So, let's see. The CIs of the plays in the [U V7] 20k rollout were (avg) .0055, and the CIs of the [U V15] 46k rollout are .004. That makes the CIs of the margins .0078 and .0056, and the CI of the difference in margins = sqrt(.0078^2 + .0056^2) = .0096.

That is, (assuming I've made no mistake), the probability of an independent 20k rollout and 46k rollout of the same position being .010 or more apart (as these are) is less than 5%, if you believe XG.

Anyway, after 67k trials, U (Up, Bar/21) beats V (Variant-Up, Bar/22 24/23) by .012.

[Btw, I hope that W (5k) is still part of your 46k rollout, and in order to emphasize the U/V margin you just chose not to display W this time; otherwise you might have two rollout files.]

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 3rd roll decison
  Chuck Bower -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 12:01 a.m.
  • 54S-21H-31?
    Stick -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 12:20 a.m.
    • 54S-21H-31?
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 1:47 a.m.
  • 3rd roll decison
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 1:31 a.m.
  • 54S-21H-31 -- warning, bot content
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 3:35 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 18 June 2010, at 6:15 p.m.
    • 54S-21H-31 and 54S-41H-31
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:18 a.m.
      • 54S-21H-31 and 54S-41H-31
        Stick -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:56 a.m.
      • More rollouts
        Stick -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 4:26 p.m.
        • 54S-21H-31 and 54S-41H-31
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 6:01 p.m.
    • Longer Rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 2:44 p.m.
      • Role of truncs, variance of full rollouts
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:14 p.m.
        • Role of truncs, variance of full rollouts
          Stick -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:22 p.m.
        • Role of truncs, variance of full rollouts
          Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 19 June 2010, at 5:56 p.m.
        • Truncated rollouts at the start of a game
          Tom Keith -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 2:22 p.m.
        • Rollout eXtension
          Stick -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
          • Rollout eXtension
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 11:09 p.m.
            • Rollout eXtension
              Stick -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 11:14 p.m.
  • 40k trial rollout result
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 21 June 2010, at 12:03 p.m.