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OLM Sa 06/19/10 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 8:17 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 06/19/10 (Jason Lee)

The score (after 3 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 19: BGO Readers on roll, cube decision?

XG Roller+	139
BGO Readers	149
Position ID: g7fBGEC0zciAEQ Match ID: cAngASAAIAAA

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64.31% (G: 27.84% B: 1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.69% (G: 8.51% B: 0.36%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.74% (G: 29.22% B: 1.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.26% (G: 8.76% B: 0.41%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.494
Double:	+1.023
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.697
Double/Take:	+0.672 (-0.024)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.303)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.008 (+0.688...+0.705)
Confidence Double:	± 0.012 (+0.660...+0.684)
Double Decision confidence:	99.9%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

neilkaz: I'd cube if the scores were reversed but think we should take a roll here.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64.17% (G: 28.02% B: 1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.83% (G: 8.75% B: 0.35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.67% (G: 29.55% B: 1.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.33% (G: 9.15% B: 0.44%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.485
Double:	+1.060
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.763 (-0.067)
Double/Take:	+0.830
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.170)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.008 (+0.755...+0.771)
Confidence Double:	± 0.011 (+0.819...+0.841)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 56 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Sa 06/19/10
  Jason Lee -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 5:04 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 06/19/10
      Tad Bright -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 5:14 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    garyo -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 5:16 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 5:38 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 12:22 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 1:17 p.m.
    • OLM Sa 06/19/10
      Fabrice Liardet -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 2:06 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    jdcartwright -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 5:15 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 6:20 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10
    Seth -- Sunday, 20 June 2010, at 10:44 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 06/19/10 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 8:17 p.m.