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Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 1:19 a.m.

In Response To: Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3 (Maik Stiebler)

Black to play 63 or 64

I don't have much to add to the fine analyses of Casper and David except to point out that 52S-63H is an error of only .037 (and it is best by far at GG). The difference between that position and 52S-64H is that the 7pt blot is stacked safely back onto the 6pt, where it can't be hit by 61 62 64 65 and it can't be a second blot hit on 63 and 43. The downside of those immediate rolls is enormous compared to the upside of having the 7pt slotted when Opp hits only the 3pt blot or rolls an airball (51 41).

For simplicity's sake let's leave 52S-64P out of the equation and just compare 52S-63R to 52S-64R for the other two corners of the quadrangle. Running to the 14pt duplicates 2s, but anchoring on the 22pt is not so lofty an achievement anyway. Looking at rollout equities of the after-positions, the extra pip to the 14pt (duplication and all) gains only .010 in equity.

My point is that if you can accept that 52S-63H is an error of only .037, it doesn't take too much imagination to get from -.037 to +.010 when comparing the H/R margin between the two positions. Looked at from another standpoint, it would seem that (in reply to 52S) the pip from 64R gains .010 over 63R, but 64H gains .047 over 63H (which sounds about right for the cost of the 7pt blot).

Key: 63H = Hit-and-down (13/7 6/3*), 64H = Hit (13/3*), 63R = Run (24/15), 64R = 24/14.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
  Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 11:44 a.m.
  • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
    phil simborg -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 12:31 p.m.
    • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
      aoleg1 -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 12:54 p.m.
    • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 1:42 p.m.
      • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
        David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 4:21 p.m.
    • First name basis...
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 3:49 p.m.
      • First name basis...
        David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 4:23 p.m.
        • Last name basis...
          garyo -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 5:03 p.m.
      • First name basis...
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 4:34 p.m.
  • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
    lenny -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 10:18 p.m.
  • 52S 64?
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 22 June 2010, at 10:31 p.m.
  • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 1:19 a.m.
    • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 2:39 p.m.
  • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
    Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 8:58 a.m.
    • Opening replies: The loose hit on the 3
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 12:51 p.m.
    • 41U-61
      David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 2:09 p.m.
      • 41U-61
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 3:33 p.m.
        • 41U-61
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
        • Book C?
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 25 June 2010, at 1:31 a.m.
          • Book C?
            Nack Ballard -- Friday, 25 June 2010, at 5:00 a.m.
            • Book C?
              jdg -- Friday, 25 June 2010, at 4:31 p.m.