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41U-61

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 23 June 2010, at 3:33 p.m.

In Response To: 41U-61 (David Rockwell)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X ' ' '5O

 '1X ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '5X

41U-61 [H P27 K59 X83]



2O ' ' ' '5X '3X '1X '5O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '4X

43S-61 [X P9 H15]


Great example and nice analysis, and thanks for the rollout, David.

41U-61 is a great position. Paul and I wrote up a page on it for Book C (which hopefully some day will get published).

I added nacbracs to the captions above. For 41U-61 (top left), I averaged your GnuBG [H P38 K51] 5k with Snowie [H P16] 5k and some trunc data for the weaker two of the four plays. For 43S-61 (top right), I averaged data from three bots.

As a consequence of 5 duplication, if Blue correctly plays H (Hit, 13/7 6/5*) in the upper left, White has only 22 return shots. If Blue (erroneously) plays H in the upper right, White has 31 return shots (I didn't count just now, but that's what the rough draft of Book C says :)).

The most striking contrast is in the comparison of H (hit-and-down) to X (hit-and-split, 24/18 6/5*). H is better than X by .083 in the left-hand diagram, whereas X is worse than H by .015 in the right-hand diagram, a swing of nearly .100.

Even P vs X (where P means Point, 13/7 8/7) is a swing of .065 between the two positions. As I've rambled on about elsewhere, the optimal time to split is against a 10pt builder.

Nack

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