| |
BGonline.org Forums
Scary Giant Cube Decision
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Scary Giant Cube Decision (adambulldog)
Date: Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 4:17 a.m.
The trailer's 2-cube takepoint ATS is ~23% less approx 145% of his gammon chances. I'll guess 1.5% g's for Adam's side so he needs 20.75% to take. Does he win this often? Looks close but I think so.
Should White double? There's a decent amount of volatility since 11 numbers clear the mid and lose the market to some degree. These clearing rolls help White's race since they average > 12 pips each while also reducing the shot danger by clearing the mid. I count 11 non-clearers that allow White to keep all 3 outfield landing points (52,51,41,31,21,11 not counting 42 and 32 since I think White's supposed to clear the 10 with these rolls) where he will have 11 clearers next time. That's about 14.3/36 mid-clearers in the next 2 rolls. If this doesn't happen, White rates to have a couple of chances to roll one of 7 mid-clearers (the 5 good dubs plus 65), so it looks like he's a fav to clear the mid safely which should give him 85% or more winning chances.
The remaining games are Adam's best case since White now will probably started to waste pips and might have to leave a shot as he tries to clear his outfield points. I think Adam wins enough of these for a close take, but it does look real close so doubling looks correct to me. You don't want to give any loose cubes ATS and this one isn't IMO.
The exceptions would be 1)If White has some reason to believe that Blue will think his takepoint ATS is his MWC if he drops and goes down 0-6 Crawford (which is about 9%), in which case it'd be better to wait since you'll probably get a bad take later. 2) If White's the clearly better player. This is a pretty easy position for Blue to play correctly so White should probably take a roll.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.