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63S-63R-44D-53?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 5:30 a.m.

In Response To: 63S-63R-44D-53? (Timothy Chow)

63S-63R-44D-53

I have no rollout for the position above. However, let's start by examining the common second roll position below:

White opened 43Z, Blue to play 51 or 52

I happen to know that if Blue rolls 51 here, S (Split, 24/23 13/8) is better than X (hit-and-split, 24/23 6/1*), but only by .017 (bot aggregate).

What if we change Blue's roll to 52? Obviously, he should hit on the 4pt, BUT if we disallow that option and make him play 24/22 with the deuce, how should he play the 5? In comparison with the ace-split, the deuce-split comes under the gun and threatens the 9pt blot/builder, giving Blue more incentive to play a deflective hit. I'd guess that 6/1* goes from being worse than 13/8 by .017 (in conjunction with a 1-split) to becoming at least as strong (in conjunction with a 2-split).

Now if we also give White an extra builder on the 10pt for free, we attain your position (the one I've repeated at the top of this post), with Blue's entering of the 3 being effectively the same as a deuce-split. Surely White's 10pt blot/builder further motivates Blue to hit, so hit (6/1*) it is.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 63S-63R-44D-53?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 3:15 a.m.
  • 63S-63R-44D-53?
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 4:00 a.m.
    • 63S-63R-44D-53?
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 5:14 a.m.
  • 63S-63R-44D-53?
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 5:30 a.m.
  • Rollout: 63S-63R-44D-53?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 4:02 a.m.