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Replies to opening 32Z
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 64S-31 started (neilkaz)
Date: Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 5:46 p.m.
Oops..mind was stuck on 43Z...anyhow almost no one plays 32Z as almost anyone who splits plays 32S
I figured that's what you meant, and that here you didn't stop to think that if it were 32S-21 it wouldn't belong on the list (not a close decision).
When bots first came out, all the rollouts I can remember had opening 32Z in the top two plays, and sometimes the top play, for that roll. Opening 32Z was often played in the late 80s and early to mid 90s, so I had many an OTB opportunity to contemplate the interesting replies.
I remember that Kent Goulding once played opening 32D early in a match and his opponent (I won't name names but I don't think he'll mind if I reveal that his initials are PW) piped up, "Third best!"
By S/G/X (i.e., Snowie/Gnu/XG) aggregate, here are the opening plays that fare better than -.020 but worse than -.010:
43U = -.016
41$ = -.015 (or -.022 by XG 4-ply only)
32Z = -.015
54D = -.013
52D = -.012
32D = -.011
51$ = -.011It seems somewhat arbitrary that 41$ is played more than 32Z. Granted, 41$ is equal or a hair better at GG, but so is 62$ and most pay little attention to the replies to that. Rivalling 41$ for money is 32Z (and the latter is only -.006 at dmp). In fact, in a practical sense (for the average player, anyway) I rate 32Z better than 41$, and maybe even 54D, 52D, 32D or 51$ as well, because opponents are much more likely to err in replying to an opening play for which they aren't aping a routine answer.
I recommend that you roll out opening 32 on 4-ply, not only to better peg the S/D margin but also to see how Z performs (and please don't give up at 10k if it has a bad run). If it's a better play than people think, they might start looking at it differently and even start playing it again.
Even if opening 32Z never makes a comeback, I find that studying its replies helps with making decisions that commonly (and/or by zero ER) arise on the third and fourth roll. However, I can certainly understand why you might want to excise them from such a high priority list.
For fun, who knows how to play the replies below? (For reference, see diagram.)
32Z-21
32Z-32
32Z-41
32Z-43
32Z-51
32Z-52
32Z-65
Blue to play 21, 32, 41, 43, 51, 52 or 65
Nack
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