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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 26 June 2010, at 7:54 p.m.

In Response To: John O'Hagan Understands and Explains Match Cube Theory (neilkaz)

I dream about cubing at the start of every game. Since I didn't figure the rollout would take but a minute I tossed one on for you.





is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 99
11 point match
pip: 125
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBBBAA--bA--aa-bAbbbbA:1:1:1:00:8:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 55.61% (G: 11.22% B: 1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.39% (G: 34.78% B: 9.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.20% (G: 12.63% B: 1.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.80% (G: 34.00% B: 3.20%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.462
Redouble:-0.220
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:-0.285 (-0.065)
Redouble/Take:-0.220
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+1.220)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62357220
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.021 (-0.306...-0.264)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.025 (-0.245...-0.195)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds

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