First off all, an XG 4 ply RO of the situation assuming equal skill. I used 4 ply since 4 ply's eval was closer to the actual truth here than 3 ply so I suspect 4 ply cube will make fewer errors later (ie a bad take after clearling). We see that vs equal skill the cube is clear but with 22% chance to win and that lovely 1%+ luckbox G chance, the take is also clear.
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| XGID=---AABE-B---bB-b-bbdBa-b--:0:0:-1:00:0:5:0:7:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 1 | Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.53% (G: 3.96% B: 0.13%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.47% (G: 1.47% B: 0.05%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.97% (G: 5.22% B: 0.07%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.03% (G: 1.28% B: 0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.573 |
| Double: | +1.634 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.826 (-0.130) |
| Double/Take: | +0.957 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.043) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2154 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87427665 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.008 (+0.818...+0.834) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.011 (+0.946...+0.968) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Now to get a handle on the skill factor I used GNU with the J/T+100 Elo MET.
Since GNU 3 ply cube does a much better job of evaluating the cube here than does 2 ply, I used 3 ply cube for the RO, trying to minimize later cube errors.
As we see this decision now seems close. I still think that with a 100 Elo difference it may have been best for Petko to wait for an improvement and then cube.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 5, Neil 0 (match to 7 points)
Move number 3: gnubg on roll, cube decision?
| gnubg | 108 |
|---|---|
| |
| Neil | 129 |
Position ID: 1D6DAQMmbzMGAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAAAAA | |
• gnubg doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.0114)!
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.5675 | (Money: +0.5613) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | No double | +0.7746 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.2254 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | Double, take | +0.7632 | -0.0114 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | No double, take (4.8%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2044 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 890086143 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
However a RO (again unequal MET) shows that this is a huge pass if Petko clears so maybe cubing is OK even +100 Elo. We are in a gray area here, but for sure I'd not cube any random player that I felt was 100 Elo or more weaker than me and I suspect a few of them will still take in the below position. Adam, however, is too good to take below.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 5, Neil 0 (match to 7 points)
Move number 4: gnubg on roll, cube decision?
| gnubg | 100 |
|---|---|
| |
| Neil | 121 |
Position ID: tL0GAQMmb+cAAA Match ID: MAHgAFAAAAAA | |
• gnubg doubles
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.6395 | (Money: +0.6311) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, take | +1.3510 | +0.3510 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.9630 | -0.0370 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Double, pass | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 425 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 890086143 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||