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Misreply analysis for opening 32

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 29 June 2010, at 5:25 a.m.

In Response To: Misreply analysis for opening 32 (David Rockwell)

Thank you, David and Petter.

Below are each bot's misreplies against the three opening 32's, with agg error sizes in parentheses:

GNU
32D: 21S (.016), 41S (.022), 51S (.004), 22E (.005)?
32S: 62S (.008)
32Z: 52K (.004), 65S (.009)

XG 3-ply
32D: 33A (.014), 41S (.022), 51S (.004)
32Z: 32X (.008)

XG 4-ply
32D: 51S (.004)
32Z: 32X (.008)

Snowie
32D: 33E (.028), 51S (.004)

As 32D-22E was reported as a seventh Gnu misreply by Petter but not David (different versions of GNU?), I'll count half of it.

Dividing the non-doublet errors by 18 and the doublet errors by 36, the effects of the errors against each opening roll, and by bot, are:

32D: Gnu .0024, XG .0018, Snw .0010
32S: Gnu .0004
32Z: Gnu .0007, XG .0004

The raw (unadjusted) rollout results are:

Snowie .. [S Z17 D18] 75k 44kZ
GnuBG .. [S D7 Z13] 92k
XG 3-ply [S D7] 46k

Adjusted by misreply errors, these results are:

Snowie .. [S Z17 D17] 75k 44kZ
GnuBG .. [S D5 Z13] 92k
XG 3-ply [S D5] 46k

Conclusion: Misreply analsis has little effect on the bottom line in this case. The disparity in S/D margin between Snowie and the other two bots cannot even be partially explained by (immediate) misreply: in fact, in that regard Snowie outplayed not only Gnu (which is very typical) but it also outplayed XG.

Nack

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