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Crunch cube at score

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 30 June 2010, at 3:47 a.m.

In Response To: Crunch cube at score (Jeremy Bagai)

Interesting. ATS, the trailer's basic 4-cube takepoint is around 24%, 4-cube g values are approx 16%/64% (favoring the trailer of course), and the leader's 8-cube takepoint is in the 35% neighborhood. I'll give choc about 15% gammons here and 4% for light which lowers the takepoint to about 23.5%. Assuming 70% efficiency, cube ownership should be worth around 6% so light needs 17.5% cubeless to take.

Does he have it? He probably gets 3 or 4 wins on choc's 9 crashers plus there's the almost 2% chance of choc rolling a non-crasher and light rolling boxes and becoming a game fav. That's around 3.5 to 4.5 wins so far and he only needs about 6.3/36 to take. Can he win the other 1.8 - 2.8 wins in the other 26.3 games? I would think so, so I vote for taking the redouble.

Should choc redouble? I think you have to. I don't think it's too good or too good and not good enough, I don't think the reduced gammon value will change many of either side's checker plays, and there's a good chance light will pass (out of disgust at just crashing, or from evaluating the position and coming to a different conclusion than I did).

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