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Can white squeeze out a take here?

Posted By: christian munk-christensen
Date: Wednesday, 30 June 2010, at 1:36 p.m.

In Response To: Can white squeeze out a take here? (Carlo Melzi)

I would count the shots on the first sequence:

66 - 20 shots

65 - 40 shots

64 - 40 shots

54 - 40 shots

140 shots on the first sequence.

If black rolls well, strippping the 6 point and perhaps bears off 2 checkers white will stay put and get these shots on the 2nd sequence:

65 - 64 shots

62 - 30 shots

54 - 64 shots

51 - 30 shots

Total on the 2nd sequence: 188 shots

This is 328/1296 shots on the first 2 sequences alone which is more than your 25%.

I know that sometimes the 2nd sequence is a different one but this is more than counterbalanced by all the shots that can also come down the road.

If white hits an early shot he can probably cash straight away, provided black doesn't instaroll a 16. If white hits a later shot he can may be able to redouble black in later on. This is also worth some vig.

All in all I think there are plenty shots in the position to take.

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