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Save the BG and save the free drop..or hope for more?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 3 July 2010, at 3:29 a.m.

In Response To: Save the BG and save the free drop..or hope for more? (neilkaz)

Let's put things in perspective.

You stay:

  • You still win almost never. I would round your win percentage to 0%.
  • You get a shot on 10 numbers [21 31 41 51 61] and hit that shot 11/36. That works out to hitting about 8.5% of the time.
  • Your main goal by staying is to get off the gammon. Your opponent's gammon and backgammon values are close (slightly over the money value of 0.50) since all winning a bg does is alleviate you of your free drop, which is valued at ~1.2%.
  • If you do hit, ~8.5% of the time, you're a huge favorite to get off the gammon, I'd guess at least 3-1 favorite. So I'm going to put your overall off the gammon chances by staying at 6.5%. (I rounded up a shade since I completely ignored the fluke wins you get by staying)

What does that all add up to, running or staying? That's for you to figure out.

Stick

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