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22 to play at DMP

Posted By: christian munk-christensen
Date: Saturday, 3 July 2010, at 9:24 a.m.

In Response To: 22 to play at DMP (neilkaz)

The big question here is wether to hit or block.

Hitting leaves dark 15 hitters that are almost winners. I'll give dark 14 wins in these variations. Of the 21 games When dark doesn't hit he is left with 1 guy back and an even race. How often can he escape and run home for a win? My guess is 6 games.

Total is 20 wins for dark efter white plays 13/5*.

Of the blocking plays I like 11(2), 8/4 the most. Here dark will escape on 11 rolls which leave him a solid favourite in the race. I guess dark will win 8 of these. On the 25 rolls where he stays put, white will pounce and be a solid favourite to contain dark's straggler. I guess light will be able to contain dark and win on 16 rolls.

Total wins for dark after being blocked is 17 wins.

Bottom line: Light should block and hope that dark doesn't run away.

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