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Rollout leaves me still confused

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 3:14 a.m.

In Response To: Several choices for a 6-1 (Timothy Chow)

While trying to understand why 22/15 is worse than 22/16 6/5 here, I figured that duplication of 4's was important so I tried shifting White's anchor to the 4 point. To my befuddlement, instead of the top two plays just switching places, the plays 11/5 6/5 and 22/21 11/5 became top contenders, and 22/15 remained significantly worse than 22/16 6/5. I still don't understand why shifting White's anchor by one should increase the value of 11/5 so much.

---

gnubg	144
tchow	155
Position ID: xs7gAQywzyYAMg Match ID: cIkYAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	22/16 6/5	-0.252
			0.449 0.119 0.005 - 0.551 0.200 0.015 -0.192 -0.252 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889798041 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	22/15	-0.326 ( -0.074)
			0.430 0.116 0.005 - 0.570 0.201 0.014 -0.235 -0.326 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889798041 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	11/5 6/5	-0.340 ( -0.087)
			0.426 0.129 0.006 - 0.574 0.198 0.014 -0.226 -0.340 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889798041 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	22/21 11/5	-0.367 ( -0.115)
			0.418 0.123 0.005 - 0.582 0.195 0.013 -0.245 -0.367 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889798041 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

gnubg	142
tchow	155
Position ID: xs7gAQawzyYAMg Match ID: cIkYAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/5 6/5	-0.552
			0.373 0.101 0.004 - 0.627 0.197 0.013 -0.358 -0.552 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889884681 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	22/16 6/5	-0.564 ( -0.012)
			0.377 0.088 0.004 - 0.623 0.214 0.015 -0.383 -0.564 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889884681 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	22/21 11/5	-0.567 ( -0.015)
			0.370 0.095 0.004 - 0.630 0.199 0.012 -0.371 -0.567 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889884681 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	22/15	-0.612 ( -0.060)
			0.363 0.085 0.003 - 0.637 0.214 0.014 -0.414 -0.612 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889884681 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Several choices for a 6-1
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 3 July 2010, at 3:29 a.m.
  • Several choices for a 6-1
    Stick -- Saturday, 3 July 2010, at 3:43 a.m.
    • Several choices for a 6-1
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 3 July 2010, at 6:24 a.m.
  • Rollout leaves me still confused
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 3:14 a.m.
    • Rollout leaves me still confused
      Stick -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 4:58 a.m.