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RO of this idiotic decision

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 5 July 2010, at 11:21 p.m.

In Response To: Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax (neilkaz)

OTB the gremlins took over for the second time on Sunday and unlike my silly AtS recube vs Kit, this time I overanalysed the position (however, further questioning should have lead me to the correct play anyhow). Quickly I went to make the 2-3 game and felt that I had no worse than a .75 take, perhaps .70. Then I saw the alternative of keeping the 1-3 game and hitting and that once in a while it may allow me to go forward since if I can contain 3 checkers and Steve rolls a blocked 5, he breaks his bar point. If the plan fails I may end up with OK timing sometimes.

The big problem with hitting two is that it still is very hard to go forward and when that doesn't work out I am left with poor timing. I still may end up fully primed since Steve can play his spares to the 2 pt and recirculate, or I simply end up badly timed behind the 5 prime unable to release checkers that get sent back.

Anyhow..I was convinced that I had a clear take after my choice, but had I asked myself the $64,000 question (is it clearly better than a .75 take?) and then reconsidered since initial I felt making the 2-3 game was automatic, I'd likely have not blundered badly. I'll do 1296 games RO for the 3rd and 4th candidates here and extend and repost if they come out close.

OTB my silly attempt to retain forward chances failed miserably when I was caught trying to switch to forwards as my timing was running out and then pinned back to an ace pt game and BG'd.

Such bad match management by me to make this play at this score also, where I shouldn't need to complicate and jack up volatility and G/BG losses.

Note also that a 4 ply RO here does clearly better for my side than the 3 ply RO I did on my laptop in Novi.

	is Steve Sax score: 2 pip: 128 11 point match pip: 192 score: 5 is Neil Kazaross
XGID=--a-A-CaC---aD---cbcbbA-C-:0:0:1:11:5:2:0:11:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	24/23(2) 24/22	eq: -0.613
	Player: Opponent: 40.48% (G:5.78% B:0.42%) 59.52% (G:26.12% B:1.85%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.625...-0.601) Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/22 13/12* 8/7*	eq: -0.884 (-0.271)
	Player: Opponent: 38.51% (G:6.64% B:0.51%) 61.49% (G:31.00% B:4.50%) Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.901...-0.867) Duration: 4 hours 44 minutes
3.	5 ply	24/22 8/7* 6/5	eq: -0.712 (-0.099)
	Player: Opponent: 46.88% (G:2.96% B:0.09%) 53.12% (G:34.84% B:6.95%)
4.	5 ply	24/22 6/4	eq: -0.810 (-0.197)
	Player: Opponent: 39.98% (G:4.36% B:0.14%) 60.02% (G:28.52% B:3.97%)
5.	5 ply	24/22 6/5(2)	eq: -0.817 (-0.205)
	Player: Opponent: 41.56% (G:3.30% B:0.10%) 58.44% (G:30.84% B:4.82%)
6.	5 ply	24/22 13/12* 6/5	eq: -0.840 (-0.227)
	Player: Opponent: 42.57% (G:3.68% B:0.12%) 57.43% (G:33.28% B:5.72%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87427665 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 2:09 p.m.
  • Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 2:19 p.m.
    • Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
      Andreas -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 3:44 p.m.
    • Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 3:50 p.m.
    • Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 6:40 p.m.
  • Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 5:01 p.m.
  • Routine (?!!) 11 to play vs Sax
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 9:35 p.m.
  • RO of this idiotic decision
    neilkaz -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 11:21 p.m.