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semis recube --- diagrams
Posted By: Kit Woolsey In Response To: semis recube --- diagrams (Petter Bengtsson)
Date: Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 9:05 p.m.
There are several reasons to not redouble.
1) If I miss the shot, he has a wicked re-cube to 8. If I pass, the match is even. If I take, I'll either win the match or be behind 8-4 with about 24% equity (a little worse, since there is a slight chance that I would lose a gammon). Thus, I'll be getting less than 2 to 1 odds on the take. On balance, I'll probably get a single shot -- sometimes more, sometimes less, depending on what he rolls and whether I'll be able to hold everything with my play. Even if I do hit the later shot I still have to win the game, and while I'll be a big favorite the win isn't etched in stone and I have to play the game to conclusion. All things considered I don't think I'll win 1/3 of the time when I miss, which means I have to pass the 8-cube. At least that was the decision I had made at the table, right or wrong. Of course if I hold off on redoubling I get to play the game out, and if I do hit the later shot I can probably cash. That is the biggest argument against redoubling.
2) If I do hit, unless he rolls something very good from the bar I will have a comfortable play-on for the gammon. Whether or not I'll get the gammon is up in the air, but I can safely play on with virtually no risk of losing the game since I will always be able to cash if necessary. Thus, by waiting I might get my 4 points anyway even if I don't redouble.
3) If I redouble, hit, and win the gammon there is overage involved since that gets me to 12 points. If I were ahead 3-0 there would be no overage, and the redouble would be a lot more attractive.
It looked clear that he had a take. His potential re-cube to 8 gives him 13 winners out of 36 outright, plus perhaps 1 additional winner from my 23 hitters. He will get gammoned on a good chunk of my hits, but since a non-gammon loss would put him behind 8-0 anyway the additional cost of the gammon isn't nearly as great as it would be if the score were 0-0. So, while this would be a trivial pass at 0-0, it is a take at this match score.
Did I have a theoretically correct redouble? My guess was that I did not, due to the factors discussed above. However, if he would be passing the double then obviously I should be doubling.
There were several psychological factors which might combine and cause him to pass. They were:
1) In the earlier position, he could (and should, IMO) have paid now with 13/8, 13/7. His actual play blew up in his face in the worst possible way. Naturally he gave plenty of thought to playing 13/8, 13/7. I know that when I make a play which I later perceive as an error and the game goes badly due to the play, I am quite prone to get discouraged with the game and possibly pass a cube I should take. I'm sure that other players are similarly affected.
2) He could see that I have 23 shot numbers. He could also see that if I do hit, I have a good chance to win a gammon. How good my gammon chances are is not clear, but most players tend to overestimate the gammon chances in a position such as this. Even after I pick up 2 or 3 blots, I still have to win the fight for my ace point in order to have big gammon chances, and that won't be so easy since most of my builders are a long ways from the ace point and he has a four-point board. If he wins the fight for my ace point, my gammon chances go down a lot. Also, if he enters immediately he will be able to get at least one of his blots safe, again cutting down on my gammon chances.
3) If he does take and I win a gammon, the match is over. He will be totally at the mercy of the dice, and he may never have a chance. Nobody likes to be in this situation. Most players like to be able to continue to play the match, even if they will be big underdogs, rather than to make a take (which they think might prove to be a bad take) and outright lose the match due to the take.
4) He might not see the power of his re-cube if I miss. He may be thinking that even if I do miss he will have a lot to clean up and will probably have to leave at least another shot. The fact that his re-cube is an immediate winner is what makes his take so strong.
5) As you can imagine, I thought a long time before redoubling. He may think that in my mind I was considering whether or not I was too good to redouble -- that I was considering playing on for the gammon. If he has that wrong perception, that may cause him to pass.
Due to these factors, at the table I judged that there was a reasonable chance he would pass the double. I didn't know what percentage chance I needed for him to pass to justify my redouble, as the position was pretty complex. But putting it all together I decided that the odds were good enough, and I was rewarded when he did, in fact, pass the redouble.
Kit
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