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Rollout: 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 11:46 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C? (Timothy Chow)

I could see that the take was easy here so I thought it would be a marginal cube at best. OTB I held the cube, rolled 4-1 and anchored, and my opponent rolled 5-3, hitting. This seemed like a fairly average sequence for me and I clearly no longer had a double. So I'm still somewhat surprised that the rollout indicates that it's such a big error not to cube.

gnubg	146
tchow	146
Position ID: 4LuDARTYzsQBIg Match ID: cAkGAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.480
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.763
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.237
3.	No double	+0.687	-0.077
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.657 0.247 0.009 - 0.343 0.087 0.004 +0.480 +0.687 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.009 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.662 0.271 0.008 - 0.338 0.086 0.005 +1.026 +0.763 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.008 0.014
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889228496 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 12:57 a.m.
  • 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 3:40 a.m.
    • Tutorial
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 8 July 2010, at 4:05 a.m.
      • Tutorial
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 July 2010, at 5:17 a.m.
        • Tutorial
          Tad Bright -- Friday, 9 July 2010, at 2:38 a.m.
  • 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 2:36 p.m.
    • 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 2:54 p.m.
  • Rollout: 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 11:46 p.m.
    • Rollout: 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 11:56 p.m.
    • Rollout: 21$-63Z-62H-62U-43C-63R-21H-63D-C?
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 July 2010, at 12:03 a.m.