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Pay now/later guidance

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 9 July 2010, at 4:32 a.m.

In Response To: Pay now/later guidance (Tad Bright)

Definitely pay now. If Black rolls his best (D3 or 43) and you fan, I think you still win around 30% with some g's so it's probably NR/T. If he hits and covers and you roll a 2, it's even better for you. It he hits without covering, it's anybody's game. Looks like you win 4.5-5 of these 11 hits. You seldom lose after the 25 misses and have some running gammon chances.

If you pay later 6/1 5/2, things looks worse. You do gain on Black's 61 and 51 or if you roll a joker to clear the 10-point, but that's about it. Black will either cover his blot or clear the 16-point with most rolls and you'll be a bit worse off than paying now. Assuming Black clears the 16 point, you'll be forced to blot with 64,63,62, and 61 while all dbls (not D6) plus 54 will clear the 10. But that's not all. 53,52, and 51 force you to either clear the 6 or leave a shot so you'll end up blotting more than 8/15 of the time if you pay later. You'll be leaving 16 shots if the blot's on the 10-point and will more frequently be facing a 5-point board if you pay later and then get hit.

You'll get hit more if you pay later, the hits will hurt more later than now, the oppt will have more control of the outfield if you wait, and you'll win fewer gammons.

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