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BGonline.org Forums
Possible for humans?
Posted By: Joe Russell In Response To: Possible for humans? (Tad Bright)
Date: Saturday, 10 July 2010, at 9:45 a.m.
Yes. Your 2-cube gammon price is not that high at 6-away, 4-away. Is is only .564. Your opponents is .672, higher than yours, since a gammon is very efficient for him. You should only be slightly more aggressive than at money in going for a gammon and you should be quite a bit more protective in avoiding gammons.
It is clear that making the four point wins more, wins fewer gammons, and gets gammoned the least of the three candidate plays that I see: 9/7* 8/7; 8/7* 7/5; and 6/5 5/4. Making the bar probably wins the most gammons and loses the most games. The problem with that point is that it may be hard to break without leaving a shot. 8/7* 7/5 is a bit safer but should win fewer gammons. I would guess that it is preferable to the bar point as it probably trades wins for gammons at a pretty even rate. Let us compare it to 6/5 5/4. I would estimate that you win ~80%, win a gammon ~ 14%, and lose a gammon ~2% when you make the four point. With 8/7* 7/5, I estimate you win about 73%, win a gammon ~22%, and lose a gammon ~5%. So the net gains with the former are 7% wins and 3% fewer times being gammoned. The net loss is 8% less gammons. A trade of 7% wins for 8% gammons is a bad trade when your gammon price is .564. The fact that you also get gammoned more further indicates the preference of the four point.
At this score you should pretty much make the play you would make for money. If you were at gammon-go. Either of the two other plays would probably be preferable to the four point, since the trades of wins for gammons would be equal and you would not care about being gammoned.
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