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Rollout: Step up or stay back?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 13 July 2010, at 4:58 p.m.

In Response To: Step up or stay back? (Timothy Chow)

Casper had the right idea here: White's blot on his 2 point is of critical importance. Releasing the pressure on that blot by stepping up, as I did, is a whopper. But lift that blot to White's 3 point, and staying back evaluates to a blunder (though I didn't roll it out). Strategically, Blue would be do well to escape that back checker and contain White's checker, despite being behind in the race, but the possibility of sending another White checker back provides more than enough incentive to stay back and risk getting primed. Note that White is not well-positioned to attack Blue's checker yet if Blue stays back.

gnubg	112
tchow	131
Position ID: 2twGAwjYzhkDQA Match ID: cIkQACAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/24 8/4	-0.285
			0.424 0.118 0.005 - 0.576 0.167 0.006 -0.202 -0.285 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889710620 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/24 10/6	-0.335 ( -0.050)
			0.406 0.115 0.005 - 0.594 0.182 0.005 -0.255 -0.335 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889710620 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/20	-0.389 ( -0.104)
			0.399 0.082 0.003 - 0.601 0.181 0.004 -0.302 -0.389 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 889710620 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Step up or stay back?
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 12 July 2010, at 3:01 a.m.
  • Step up or stay back?
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 July 2010, at 5:01 a.m.
  • Step up or stay back?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 12 July 2010, at 10:06 a.m.
  • Step up or stay back?
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 12 July 2010, at 2:00 p.m.
  • Step up or stay back?
    Dorn Bishop -- Monday, 12 July 2010, at 8:45 p.m.
  • Rollout: Step up or stay back?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 13 July 2010, at 4:58 p.m.
    • Rollout: Step up or stay back?
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 13 July 2010, at 5:21 p.m.
    • Rollout: Step up or stay back?
      Dorn Bishop -- Tuesday, 13 July 2010, at 9:32 p.m.