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Peever Blunder

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 12:43 p.m.

In Response To: Peever Blunder (Paul Weaver)

Making the 7 looks pretty clear at most scores. Is this score an exception? I doubt it since the trailer's 2-cube gammon value is < 1.0 ATS and I don't think 13/7 11/9 creates that many extra gammons anyway. A single game win makes the score 3-8 Post Crawford which gives the trailer around 17% MWC (a little worse than 5a-Crawford I would think since the leader has a free drop), a loss loses the match with 0% MWC, and a gammon makes it 5-8 PC which I'll estimate at 31% MWC (a little worse than 2a-Crawford for the trailer again becuz of the leader's free drop), so the gammon value is 14/17. Does the big play create 17/14 extra gammons/extra losses? I don't think so. If Black misses the shot and White covers, Black mainly ends up with a somewhat crashed 22-pt game with maybe one extra man back - not a very gammonish situation. If Black rolls a 4, his chances are clearly improved (although White's far from dead). I doubt you get enough extra g's to make slotting correct so I'd make the 7-point.

Messages In This Thread

• Peever Blunder
  Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 9:46 a.m.
  • Peever Blunder
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 10:14 a.m.
    • Peever Blunder
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 10:43 a.m.
  • Peever Blunder
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 12:43 p.m.
  • Peever Blunder
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 1:51 p.m.
  • Peever Blunder
    Bill -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 3:12 p.m.
  • Rollout Coming
    Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Peever Blunder
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 14 July 2010, at 5:25 p.m.