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3a-7a cube action

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Friday, 16 July 2010, at 12:38 a.m.

In Response To: 3a-7a cube action (John O'Hagan)

here's the rollout:




is blotto

score: 0
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 4

is Lyurix
XGID=aBBBaCB----AA--bAb-bbAcb--:1:-1:-1:00:4:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 28.84% (G: 10.39% B: 1.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 71.16% (G: 34.07% B: 1.40%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 28.94% (G: 9.39% B: 1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 71.06% (G: 29.03% B: 0.15%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.524
Redouble:-0.238
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:-0.296 (-0.058)
Redouble/Take:-0.238
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+1.238)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.012 (-0.308...-0.284)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.015 (-0.253...-0.223)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is a D/T. My opponent could also recube a roll earlier in the following position:




is blotto

score: 0
pip: 106
7 point match
pip: 99
score: 4

is Lyurix
XGID=aBBB-CB----AA--cAb-bbAcb--:1:-1:-1:00:4:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 30.42% (G: 9.76% B: 0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 69.58% (G: 16.45% B: 0.21%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 30.74% (G: 9.81% B: 0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 69.26% (G: 15.19% B: 0.07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.380
Redouble:-0.153
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:-0.188 (-0.035)
Redouble/Take:-0.153
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+1.153)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.010 (-0.198...-0.178)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.015 (-0.167...-0.138)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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