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61P-54 update

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 16 July 2010, at 5:48 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-54 update (John O'Hagan)

IMO, 62 and 53 should be added to the left side. See my notes here.

In any case, whatever rolls are deemed worthy of being on the list, the net effect is much smaller than people typically imagine. Each roll needs to be assigned an estimated percentage that it will be misplayed (and is variable depending on strength/style of opponent), then multiplied by 1/18 or 1/36 of its error size.

The long-term complications effect from staying back on the 20pt (that I referred to) gains against weaker players in a less obvious and less immediate way. This includes but is not limited to the following variation: Strong player is hit on the 20pt and hits back, recycling a third checker with which Opp has to deal, and the game becomes at least 5 + 20 = 25 pips longer each time such a hitting exchange occurs. (Or 32/21 met by hit on 18pt.) Such an exchange can occur on the 15pt as well, but it is much less likely. Granted, contact-retaining factors are difficult to quantify.

Nack

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