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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 9 December 2006, at 5:03 a.m.

In Response To: Othello #7 -- WWTDD?? (Stick)

Not sure if I'd seen it OTB but since it was the Othello quizzes I was sure to see it. Still a tough one to swallow. It looks very natural to play 24/18 13/8. Leave yourself flexible, reinforce the 8 pt, yada yada yada. What's the problem then? You're giving up your anchor, you get slammed in short. Your gammons go up significantly and your wins go down significantly also. You're conceding your long term decently timed ace point game by abandoning the anchor. [behind 40 pips may not be ideal, but it's a decent fallback plan]

When you're missed (it is only 20 shots) you can start to build your forward position in an orderly fashion, you'll need it.

Money Game
129
181
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/7 13/8 -0.423
0.3% 7.0% 35.3% 64.7% 29.0% 4.2%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.552 ±0.028. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 8329 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/18 13/8 -0.523 (-0.100)
0.4% 6.2% 32.7% 67.3% 35.3% 1.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.642 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 8399 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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