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31 to Play

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 19 July 2010, at 1:29 p.m.

In Response To: 31 to Play (Paul Weaver)

Lots of unattractive choices here: 13/10 23/22, 13/10 6/5, 13/9, 6/2, 13/10 5/4x, 8/4x, 5/4x 5/2. I'd eliminate 13/10 5/4x since that prematurely commits you to a back game and 5/4x 5/2 which looks too impure. I think 6/2 is better than any of the 13/10 x/y plays so it's either that or 8/4x. 6/2 does leave a builderless position that will be hard to improve so maybe the somewhat crazy-looking 8/4x is better. Magriel's safe/bold criteria suggest a bold play is called for in this position so the loose hit could be right. That leaves 4 dancers and 7 more that enter without hitting (this includes D1 which Black should use to make his 4-pt IMO). The other 25 numbers hit but I think you can afford to take this chance. 12 of these allow Black to hit just one blot (54,53,52,41,31,21) which will give you a good chance to make a 2nd anchor while 12 more hit two or three of your blots but even here you'll have to chances to hit back or make a 2nd anchor. The other hitter is D3 which will allow Black to enter and PoH on his 2-point. Dancing will then leave you in terrible shape but most of your entering numbers cover something and give you a playable game.

Black's more likely to cube right away if you hit loose on the 4 but that, by itself, doesn't make the play wrong since you'll often get cubed at some point after 6/2 as well. There are positions where one play is better than another even though the opponent's supposed to double if you make the better play and roll if you don't. This could be one of those positions. The loose hit increases the volatility so the opponent has more incentive to double than if you quietly cover your 2-point.

I think it's pretty clear that 8/4x wins more than 6/2 and that it gets gammoned more as well. The question is whether or not the increase in the former is at least half the increase in the latter. I think it is. The gains when Black fans, enters without hitting, or hits but you make a 2nd anchor, are enough IMO to justify making the big play.

I'll look at the cup as half full and make the (overly?) optimistic 8/4x play in this position.

Messages In This Thread

• 31 to Play
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 4:51 a.m.
  • 31 to Play
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 6:11 a.m.
  • 31 to Play
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 1:29 p.m.
    • 31 to Play
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 1:47 p.m.
      • 31 to Play
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 5:18 p.m.
  • 31 to Play
    Sam Pottle -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 6:48 p.m.
  • 31 to Play
    David -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 7:27 p.m.
  • 31 to Play
    nori -- Tuesday, 20 July 2010, at 2:40 a.m.