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rollout

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Wednesday, 21 July 2010, at 4:33 a.m.

In Response To: rollout (Timothy Chow)

Timothy, hopefully this post will answer at least some of your questions.

The first position is the one posted by Adam. The second position is a variant where Yellow's 10-point blot has been moved forward to the 4-point.

In these two positions Brown has 17 board breaking rolls if Yellow doesn't hit on the acepoint. Not hitting is clear.

Third and fourth positions are the same as first and second but with a spare moved from Brown's 3-point back to the 5-point.

Brown now has 11 board breaking rolls. Hitting or not hitting is a close decision.

In the fifth and sixth position Brown's home board spare has been moved one more pip back to the 6-point.

Brown now has only 5 board breaking rolls. Hitting on the acepoint is clear.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 76 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 109 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC---A--------bbcdcB-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/2 5/4	eq: -0,152
	Player: Opponent: 49,73% (G:5,70% B:0,18%) 50,27% (G:9,12% B:0,39%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,156...-0,148) Duration: 39 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/9 6/2	eq: -0,167 (-0,015)
	Player: Opponent: 49,17% (G:5,66% B:0,17%) 50,83% (G:9,22% B:0,40%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,171...-0,163) Duration: 32 minutes 20 seconds
3.	Rollout2	10/5	eq: -0,172 (-0,021)
	Player: Opponent: 48,38% (G:5,76% B:0,16%) 51,62% (G:7,45% B:0,22%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,180...-0,164) Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds
4.	Rollout2	6/1*	eq: -0,181 (-0,029)
	Player: Opponent: 52,15% (G:5,08% B:0,20%) 47,85% (G:13,35% B:0,93%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,190...-0,172) Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
5.	Rollout2	10/9 5/1*	eq: -0,187 (-0,035)
	Player: Opponent: 51,60% (G:5,11% B:0,17%) 48,40% (G:12,93% B:0,95%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,196...-0,178) Duration: 9 minutes 02 seconds
6.	Rollout2	10/6 5/4	eq: -0,195 (-0,043)
	Player: Opponent: 47,40% (G:5,46% B:0,17%) 52,60% (G:7,42% B:0,23%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,203...-0,187) Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 76 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 103 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCCC------------bbcdcB-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/2 4/3	eq: -0,270
	Player: Opponent: 44,66% (G:4,62% B:0,15%) 55,34% (G:7,95% B:0,23%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,279...-0,261) Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/1* 4/3	eq: -0,346 (-0,076)
	Player: Opponent: 44,78% (G:4,07% B:0,17%) 55,22% (G:12,43% B:0,62%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,355...-0,337) Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: -0,359 (-0,088)
	Player: Opponent: 45,06% (G:4,30% B:0,16%) 54,94% (G:11,51% B:0,60%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,368...-0,350) Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 78 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 109 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC---A--------bccccB-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	10/9 5/1*	eq: -0,286
	Player: Opponent: 47,98% (G:3,58% B:0,13%) 52,02% (G:15,01% B:1,03%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,291...-0,281) Duration: 25 minutes 54 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: -0,287 (-0,001)
	Player: Opponent: 48,28% (G:3,70% B:0,12%) 51,72% (G:15,45% B:1,11%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,292...-0,282) Duration: 37 minutes 30 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/2 5/4	eq: -0,292 (-0,006)
	Player: Opponent: 44,07% (G:4,80% B:0,15%) 55,93% (G:10,61% B:0,43%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,296...-0,288) Duration: 34 minutes 56 seconds
4.	Rollout2	10/9 6/2	eq: -0,309 (-0,023)
	Player: Opponent: 43,19% (G:4,62% B:0,16%) 56,81% (G:10,56% B:0,48%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,317...-0,301) Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
5.	Rollout2	10/5	eq: -0,313 (-0,027)
	Player: Opponent: 42,58% (G:4,43% B:0,16%) 57,42% (G:9,17% B:0,28%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,321...-0,305) Duration: 5 minutes 50 seconds
6.	Rollout2	10/6 5/4	eq: -0,322 (-0,036)
	Player: Opponent: 41,99% (G:4,64% B:0,15%) 58,01% (G:9,21% B:0,27%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,330...-0,314) Duration: 3 minutes 01 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 78 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 103 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCCC------------bccccB-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/2 4/3	eq: -0,431
	Player: Opponent: 38,53% (G:3,75% B:0,09%) 61,47% (G:10,08% B:0,32%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,435...-0,427) Duration: 24 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/1* 4/3	eq: -0,446 (-0,015)
	Player: Opponent: 41,15% (G:2,95% B:0,09%) 58,85% (G:14,35% B:0,80%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,451...-0,441) Duration: 27 minutes 59 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: -0,446 (-0,015)
	Player: Opponent: 41,51% (G:3,12% B:0,10%) 58,49% (G:13,56% B:0,74%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,451...-0,441) Duration: 19 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 79 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 109 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC---A--------cbcccB-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: -0,337
	Player: Opponent: 46,59% (G:2,86% B:0,08%) 53,41% (G:16,08% B:1,21%) Conf: ± 0,006 (-0,343...-0,331) Duration: 32 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/9 5/1*	eq: -0,341 (-0,004)
	Player: Opponent: 46,29% (G:2,70% B:0,08%) 53,71% (G:15,75% B:1,14%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,346...-0,336) Duration: 33 minutes 55 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/2 5/4	eq: -0,355 (-0,018)
	Player: Opponent: 41,46% (G:5,00% B:0,15%) 58,54% (G:10,85% B:0,47%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,359...-0,351) Duration: 33 minutes 38 seconds
4.	Rollout2	10/9 6/2	eq: -0,368 (-0,031)
	Player: Opponent: 40,57% (G:5,10% B:0,21%) 59,43% (G:10,59% B:0,41%) Conf: ± 0,009 (-0,377...-0,359) Duration: 3 minutes 56 seconds
5.	Rollout2	10/5	eq: -0,375 (-0,038)
	Player: Opponent: 40,12% (G:5,00% B:0,16%) 59,88% (G:9,44% B:0,28%) Conf: ± 0,007 (-0,382...-0,368) Duration: 5 minutes 27 seconds
6.	Rollout2	10/6 5/4	eq: -0,386 (-0,049)
	Player: Opponent: 39,62% (G:4,66% B:0,16%) 60,38% (G:9,37% B:0,29%) Conf: ± 0,008 (-0,394...-0,378) Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 79 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 103 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCCC------------cbcccB-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	5/1* 4/3	eq: -0,486
	Player: Opponent: 39,71% (G:2,22% B:0,07%) 60,29% (G:15,02% B:0,78%) Conf: ± 0,006 (-0,492...-0,480) Duration: 28 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: -0,497 (-0,011)
	Player: Opponent: 39,90% (G:2,26% B:0,07%) 60,10% (G:14,32% B:0,80%) Conf: ± 0,005 (-0,502...-0,492) Duration: 18 minutes 15 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/2 4/3	eq: -0,535 (-0,049)
	Player: Opponent: 34,76% (G:3,64% B:0,13%) 65,24% (G:10,99% B:0,36%) Conf: ± 0,004 (-0,539...-0,531) Duration: 27 minutes 36 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36095669 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

Messages In This Thread

• 41 to play money game
  Adam Versaw -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 10:34 p.m.
  • 41 to play money game
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 19 July 2010, at 11:39 p.m.
  • 41 to play money game
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 20 July 2010, at 4:05 a.m.
  • rollout
    Adam Versaw -- Wednesday, 21 July 2010, at 2:15 a.m.
    • rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 21 July 2010, at 3:58 a.m.
      • rollout
        Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 21 July 2010, at 4:33 a.m.
        • Brilliant analysis!!
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 22 July 2010, at 12:13 a.m.