[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

8-ball in lopsided score

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 21 July 2010, at 11:37 p.m.

In Response To: 8-ball in lopsided score (christian munk-christensen)

As Kit W sez, does White have a take? To answer this question I would first try to estimate the trailer's takepoint assuming he always recubes to 16 and then deduct 2-3% from this figure to then hopefully arrive at a realistic 8-cube takepoint for the trailer ATS. Neil's number for 22-away scores probably starts at around 3, then trails off to 2s, and then to 1s. I would guess we haven't gone down to 2s just yet so if the trailer passes he'll trail 3-16 with around 11% MWC (50% - 13 x 3). Takes and lose loses the match with 0% MWC, takes and wins gives him a 19-12 lead with about 81.5% MWC, takes and wins a gammon wins the match with 100% MWC. So the trailer needs ~13.5% less around 22% his gammon wins to take. I'd guess White gets 2-3% g's here so that lowers his takepoint to around 13%. Since the auto recube strategy isn't correct, the trailer can probably take with around 11% chances.

Can White find 11% wins in this position? White could win a blot-hitting contest with a joker-like sequence along the lines of: Blue hits loose, White hits back, Blue dances on White's 3-pt board, Blue enters and jumps out and maybe hits again, White dances with one or both, etc. etc. I'll guess this happens about 3% of the time and say that White wins all of these. White could also win by anchoring and then winning by rolling boxes or flakes, or by running one home safely and then having the other one closed out, or by hitting a shot as Blue bears off. How often does White anchor and how often does he then win the game? I'd guess around 25% in both cases so that's around 6.25% more wins for White, a total of 9.25% so far. The other 72% of the time, he gets both closed out and is in real bad shape. I'll estimate 3% winning chances for White in this category which adds about 2.16% more wins for a total of 11.41% White wins, enough for a close take.

Should Blue redouble? I think so. You'll get lots of passes and there are lots of big market losing sequences on tap -- PoH or hit loose & fan with both (at least IMO they are).

My experience is that I frequently underestimate White's chances in this sort of position, so maybe I've done that again but my OTB analysis is R/T.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.