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BGonline.org Forums
Analysis
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: Rollouts Posted (rew)
Date: Monday, 26 July 2010, at 4:36 p.m.
I will give my analysis below the position.
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149Money session
Jacoby Beaverpip: 163
score: 0
is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B---eE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 to play 62
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20
In 65R-31P-61P-62, you trail in the race by 14 pips before the play and by 6 pips after the play. When you are behind in the race after the play, you should try to find an alternative to running. Also, running gives Black two hitting and pointing jokers, 22 and 44. Finally, notice that Black has absolutely no problem with playing any of his rolls if you run. He can play 6s, 5s and 4s on his own side of the board and 1s, 2s and 3s on White's side.
Slotting may looking risky, but you get a lot of return shots after being hit. If Black hits with 51, 42, 61 or 66, he has to stay on the 18pt, exposing himself to a triple return shot. If he hits with 62 or 63, you get a double shot back at him.
You have to leave a shot anyway, so why not leave it where it will do the most good if missed? If Black does not hit, you are a big fave to make a four-prime.
Now let's look at 65R-31P-61P-63.
Running is stronger here (with 63) than in the previous postion (with 62) for three reasons: (1) race is closer (2) fewer shots and fewer hit-and-make-a-point joker doubles (3) if missed, more numbers make outfield points (your next 64 makes 9pt).
Two down is weaker here (with 63) because you get a double return shot on fewer of Black's hits.
Z (reverse split, 24/21 13/7) comes a better play with 63 than with 62 (24/22 13/7) because it duplicates Black's 42 and starts a better anchor. If you get hit on the 18pt, you will usually have return shots and a chance to make an advance anchor.
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