[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Rollouts and Comments

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 27 July 2010, at 5:38 p.m.

In Response To: 64S-62H-43, 63S-63H-43, 62S-64H-52 (Paul Weaver)

Hitting is best in one position, anchoring is best in another, and the plays are tied in the thired. After seeing the three positions with rollout data below, scroll down for the commentary.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 173
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---cAe----AA:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
to play 34

1.Rollout1Bar/18eq: +0.000
Player:
Opponent:		 49.54% (G:12.41% B:0.42%)
50.46% (G:11.14% B:0.46%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.011...+0.011)
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/9* eq: -0.040 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.04% (G:13.67% B:0.64%)
50.96% (G:14.52% B:0.82%)		Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.053...-0.027)
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 173
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----E-C-a-eD---cAe----AA:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
to play 34

1.Rollout1Bar/21 13/10* eq: -0.024
Player:
Opponent:		 49.46% (G:13.24% B:0.63%)
50.54% (G:13.86% B:0.72%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.030...-0.018)
Duration: 8 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.026 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		 48.96% (G:11.95% B:0.39%)
51.04% (G:11.32% B:0.45%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.031...-0.021)
Duration: 6 hours 46 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Money session
Beaver
pip: 173
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---cAe----AA:0:0:1:52:0:0:2:0:10
to play 52

1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/11* eq: -0.005
Player:
Opponent:		 50.01% (G:12.54% B:0.57%)
49.99% (G:13.03% B:0.66%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.016...+0.006)
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.050 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		 48.43% (G:11.90% B:0.35%)
51.57% (G:11.90% B:0.46%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.060...-0.040)
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

Summary of rollout data:

64S-62H-43 Hit -0.040 Anchor -0.000

63S-63H-43 Hit -0.024 Anchor -0.026

62S-64H-43 Hit -0.005 Anchor -0.046

Let's first compare the three hitting plays. In all cases, the pip count is the same, but in the first, White's blots are on the 22pt and 9pt, while in the second, White's blots are on the 21pt and 10pt and in the third, White's blots are on the 20pt and 11pt.

In 62S-64H-43H, with the blots on the 20pt and 11pt, White (if missed) has very productive rolls. However, in 63S-63H-43H, with blots on the 21pt and 10pt, White has a nonproductive 54. In 64S-62H-43H. with blots on the 22pt and 9pt, White has a nonproductive 32 and suboptimal 53.

White, in 62S-64H-43H, with blots on the 20pt and 11pt, makes stronger points on average than in 63S-63H-43H, with blots on the 21pt and 20pt, which in turn makes stronger points on average than in 64S-62H-43H, with blots on the 22pt an 9pt.

Now let's compare the anchoring plays. As Black's blot is moved forward, his equity improves for three reasons: (1) lower pip count and (2) easier to save his outfield blot and (3) he makes more and better outfield points.

My guesses at match scores:

In 64S-64H-43, anchor at DMP and GS, hit at GG.

In 63S-63H-43, anchor at GS, hit at DMP and GG.

In 62S-64H-43, anchor at GS, hit at DMP and GG.

In 63S-63H-43, anchor if ahead in the match, hit if behind. If you are stronger than your opponent (as all bgonliners always are), then hit for money (or in a match when the score is tied) in 63S-63H-43. Hitting results in a more complicated position than anchoring, which kindly and generously gives your opponent more opportunities to screw up.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.