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4-ply rollout and my OTB thinkng

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 3:38 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs prime cube (Leonardo Jerkovic)

is Mislav score: 0 pip: 134

11 point match

pip: 107 score: 0 is miran

XGID=-b-DCCB-A--ab-----bbb-bbB-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,71% (G: 19,69% B: 1,30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,29% (G: 10,98% B: 0,94%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,06% (G: 19,15% B: 1,42%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,94% (G: 11,50% B: 1,39%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0,469
Redouble:	+0,931
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0,752 (-0,044)
Redouble/Take:	+0,796
*Redouble/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,204)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0,007 (+0,744...+0,759)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0,011 (+0,785...+0,807)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Mislav doubled and I passed.

OTB I've seen that I'm ahead in race and knew that correct cube action here for me is to take. But, I wrongly judged by how much is take.

Last five rolls (3 mine, 2 his) before this cube action I had bad luck so equity changed from +0,616 in my favor to -0,752 here. Looking how my position deteriorates affected my decision here. I imagined (almost) worst case scenario so I didn't see that I can win 30% of time. I judged that he would gammon me at least 25% of time and I didn't realize that I could win gammon.

Having all that in mind, I thought it was about 0,900+ take, but decided to let it go and start another game.

When I look at this position, when previous moves aren't on my mind, I clearly see that this is easy take.
But, it's not easy (at least for me) in a match to forget what happened moments ago. And, as we can see, that distorts my OTB judgment.

Messages In This Thread

• Prime vs prime cube
  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 4:47 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    mtuhtan -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 5:59 p.m.
    • Prime vs prime cube
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 6:20 p.m.
    • Prime vs prime cube
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 6:42 p.m.
      • Prime vs prime cube
        mtuhtan -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 7:41 p.m.
        • Prime vs prime cube
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 7:44 p.m.
          • Prime vs prime cube
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 8:56 p.m.
            • Prime vs prime cube
              Stick -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 10:31 p.m.
              • Asking permission
                svilo -- Tuesday, 27 July 2010, at 4:09 a.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 6:15 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube
    neilkaz -- Monday, 26 July 2010, at 7:53 p.m.
  • 4-ply rollout and my OTB thinkng
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 3:38 p.m.
    • 4-ply rollout and my OTB thinkng
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 3:42 p.m.
      • 4-ply rollout and my OTB thinkng
        Stick -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 5:49 p.m.
        • 4-ply rollout and my OTB thinkng
          mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 6:00 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime cube -- MG rollout
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 7:55 a.m.