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Rollout: Two down? Two in? Something else?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 2:17 a.m.

In Response To: Two down? Two in? Something else? (Timothy Chow)

Over the board, I vacillated between two down and two in, finally settling on two down, but without much confidence. Both of my blots ended up getting hit and I went down in flames. Afterwards, GNU 2-ply said that two down was a blunder. However, the rollout reversed the verdict. I'm curious as to whether XG concurs.

gnubg	157
tchow	97
Position ID: 2LbBADRs9yQGAA Match ID: QQkWAAAAAAAA

• tchow moves 13/9 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/9 13/8	+0.551
			0.699 0.294 0.023 - 0.301 0.028 0.001 +0.686 +0.551 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896286224 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	10/5 8/4	+0.518 ( -0.033)
			0.680 0.300 0.033 - 0.320 0.028 0.001 +0.664 +0.518 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896286224 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/6 8/3	+0.493 ( -0.058)
			0.670 0.297 0.032 - 0.330 0.026 0.001 +0.641 +0.493 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896286224 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Since Christian requested it, I separately rolled out (just) the hitting plays. They're not close.

gnubg	157
tchow	97
Position ID: 2LbBADRs9yQGAA Match ID: QQkWAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/8 6/2*	+0.467
			0.651 0.343 0.044 - 0.349 0.058 0.004 +0.628 +0.467 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896138357 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/3 6/2*	+0.466 ( -0.001)
			0.648 0.341 0.042 - 0.352 0.047 0.002 +0.631 +0.466 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896138357 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/5 6/2*	+0.453 ( -0.014)
			0.645 0.339 0.042 - 0.355 0.053 0.003 +0.615 +0.453 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896138357 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Two down? Two in? Something else?
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 4:24 a.m.
  • Two down? Two in? Something else?
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 5:39 a.m.
  • Two down? Two in? Something else?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 5:42 a.m.
  • Two down? Two in? Something else?
    Martin -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 5:51 a.m.
  • Two down? Two in? Something else?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 3:51 p.m.
    • Two down? Two in? Something else?
      Barry Silliman -- Wednesday, 28 July 2010, at 4:06 p.m.
  • Rollout: Two down? Two in? Something else?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
    • XG evals
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 3:22 a.m.
      • XG RO agrees
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 3:27 a.m.
        • XG RO agrees
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 3:54 a.m.
          • XG RO agrees
            Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 5:55 a.m.