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Which blot should I hit?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 7:59 p.m.

In Response To: Which blot should I hit? (Timothy Chow)

Wouldn't it be nice if Blue could put two checkers on the bar! Yes, it would be, but Blue doesn't need to hit two checkers to win, his chances of hitting the second blot are slim no matter what he plays, and the plays that increase those chances all give White 25% or so chances to enter and hit from the bar first. Blue should concentrate on containing 1 checker -- that's enough to win.

11/10*/8 gives up on making the 7 point, gives Blue 1s, 2s and 4s for the 4 point, and 2s, 3s and 5s for the 3 point. White is likely to simply enter and move the 18 point checker. Blue's containment game doesn't look overly powerful.

11/10* 8/6 picks up a fourth builder for the 4 point and a second for the 7 point, but gives White 9/36 ways to enter and hit. That doesn't seem to be a good trade-off.

8/7*/5 gives Blue only combinations of 3 builders to make another good point, and still gives White 9/36 ways to enter and hit. That seems worse than either of the other two plays.

What's left? 8/7* 11/9 gives up on Blue's slim chance to hit the other outfield checker, but gives White only 7/36 numbers to enter and hit, slots the bar point with two builders ready, and lines up combinations of 5 builders to make the 4 and 3 points and combinations of 4 builders for the 2 point. Lookin' good!

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