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Rollout: Which blot should I hit?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 30 July 2010, at 2:55 a.m.

In Response To: Which blot should I hit? (Timothy Chow)

The rollout confirms Daniel's excellent analysis. OTB I played 11/10* 8/6, being seduced by the possibility of hitting the second blot. However, it seems that focusing on containing the first blot is a better plan.

gnubg	104
tchow	130
Position ID: 2xg3iABwz0cAAw Match ID: UYkIAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/9 8/7*	+0.058
			0.443 0.088 0.002 - 0.557 0.093 0.001 -0.117 +0.058 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896014821 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/10* 8/6	+0.013 ( -0.045)
			0.421 0.089 0.003 - 0.579 0.077 0.001 -0.145 +0.013 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896014821 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	11/10*/8	-0.003 ( -0.060)
			0.419 0.069 0.002 - 0.581 0.059 0.001 -0.150 -0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896014821 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	8/7*/5	-0.021 ( -0.078)
			0.412 0.076 0.002 - 0.588 0.069 0.001 -0.168 -0.021 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 896014821 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Which blot should I hit?
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 1:16 a.m.
  • Which blot should I hit?
    Martin -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 6:03 a.m.
  • Which blot should I hit?
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 7:59 p.m.
    • Which blot should I hit?
      Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
      • Which blot should I hit?
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 29 July 2010, at 10:08 p.m.
  • Rollout: Which blot should I hit?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 30 July 2010, at 2:55 a.m.
    • Rollout: at Gammon Save
      6stones -- Sunday, 1 August 2010, at 7:32 p.m.