Paying later is clear here; the question is how to do so. I correctly assessed that being ahead in the race and having the more advanced holding point, I was better off crunching my board than giving up the 8 point, since giving up the 8 point would considerably increase my chances of having the blink first, and I am just trying to get past White's anchor rather than hit a shot. I played the move that the rollout considers second best: 6/1 5/3. This position illustrates Kit Woolsey's old observation that "breaking up is hard to do." Contrary to superficial appearances, 6/4 6/1 is more conducive to keeping a good board should a shot materialize a couple turns down the line.
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 6/4 6/1 | +0.277 |
| | | 0.588 | 0.008 | 0.000 | - | 0.412 | 0.024 | 0.001 | +0.159 | +0.277 | | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895713279 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 6/1 5/3 | +0.246 ( -0.032) |
| | | 0.572 | 0.006 | 0.000 | - | 0.428 | 0.021 | 0.000 | +0.130 | +0.246 | | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895713279 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 6/1 3/1 | +0.228 ( -0.049) |
| | | 0.569 | 0.006 | 0.000 | - | 0.431 | 0.020 | 0.000 | +0.124 | +0.228 | | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895713279 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 4 | R | 8/6 8/3 | +0.186 ( -0.091) |
| | | 0.547 | 0.008 | 0.000 | - | 0.453 | 0.013 | 0.000 | +0.090 | +0.186 | | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.004 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895713279 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
