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Rollout Posted of Seventh-Roll 33; Cube Action After Switch/Fan?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Rollout Posted of Seventh-Roll 33; Cube Action After Switch/Fan? (Paul Weaver)
Date: Friday, 30 July 2010, at 10:17 p.m.
Salient features of the position are:
1. One checker on the bar against a 3-point board.
2. Ten or eleven checkers in the zone (depending on whether you count the checker on the 11 point as being in the zone since it doesn't bear directly on an open board point).
3. Defender has made the 4 point.
4. Attacker has already escaped one back checker.
5. Defender has two outfield blots.
Ten checkers in the zone would normally indicate a solid drop if the defender had no development, but the defender's 4 point makes a big difference, enough that we have to weigh the other aspects of the position. Six rolls hit a second checker but some of these are duplicated as point-making rolls. The fact that one of the attacker's home-board points is the ace point means that the attacker is not that well-positioned to fall back on a priming game if the blitz fails. It looks like a take to me.
As for the double, there are certainly market losers and it doesn't look like too many things can go badly wrong right away, so I would double.
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