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redouble problem - ROLLOUT

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 1 August 2010, at 9:10 p.m.

In Response To: redouble problem - ROLLOUT (Leonardo Jerkovic)

OTB, I would estimate your naive 4-cube takepoint ATS to be around 24% and the leader's 8-cube takepoint to be 35%, so (assuming 70% efficiency) you would need around 18% cubeless chances to take.

Now for the tough part - trying to estimate your side's winning chances. First of all, Black usually leaves a blot in his outfield vulnerable to a 17/1 shot when playing his next roll and you'll be a big fav if you hit it or roll boxes. That occurs 3/36 so let's give you 2.5 wins there. How about if you roll some other 6? Not nearly as good for you since Black usually has a direct shot so maybe you win 30% of these 8 games, that's 4.9 wins so far. If you fan, things don't look good for you. Maybe you win 12% of the time. 12% of 25 is 3 so you're up to 7.9 wins, enough to take.

Looks like I was a little too optimistic for your side's chances and would have made a small mistake by taking the cube. Also, I just looked up the trailer's basic 4-cube takepoint in the R/K MET and it's around 26%, not 24%.

Messages In This Thread

• redouble problem
  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 1 August 2010, at 7:57 a.m.
  • redouble problem - ROLLOUT
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 1 August 2010, at 7:00 p.m.
    • redouble problem - ROLLOUT
      John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 1 August 2010, at 9:10 p.m.