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Rollout: 1ply/3ply, but good enough for me

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Monday, 2 August 2010, at 10:20 p.m.

In Response To: Payment due? -- Rollout (Paul Weaver)

Thanks Paul for this good idea. I always looked at the position as a regular holding game. But your explanation seem to be right on: one single blot is more vulnerable than a real solid anchor. Therefore the fav has mor options to win the game from here: POH or pick&pass jokers, therefore less incentive to risk now.

BTW: I would have payed later anyway, because I think that white has just a few more rolls / timing to play and wait for a nice doubles.
Seems to be the wrong reasoning leading to the right play this time.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 135 1 point match pip: 97 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCCC---dB---d-cb-a---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10
to play 54

1.	Rollout1	8/4 7/2	eq: +0,604
	Player: Opponent: 80,20% (G:18,64% B:0,12%) 19,80% (G:2,75% B:0,15%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,598...+0,610) Duration: 21,3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/2 6/2	eq: +0,574 (-0,030)
	Player: Opponent: 78,71% (G:19,05% B:0,10%) 21,29% (G:2,73% B:0,16%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,568...+0,580) Duration: 20,3 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0,571 (-0,033)
	Player: Opponent: 78,53% (G:14,47% B:0,24%) 21,47% (G:2,88% B:0,16%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,565...+0,577) Duration: 22,7 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 1 point match pip: 97 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-bCCC---cB---d-cb-a---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10
to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0,606
	Player: Opponent: 80,31% (G:20,69% B:0,37%) 19,69% (G:2,56% B:0,14%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,600...+0,612) Duration: 27,1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4 7/2	eq: +0,557 (-0,049)
	Player: Opponent: 77,86% (G:15,86% B:0,21%) 22,14% (G:3,07% B:0,15%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,551...+0,563) Duration: 23,5 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/2 6/2	eq: +0,538 (-0,068)
	Player: Opponent: 76,89% (G:14,36% B:0,19%) 23,11% (G:3,06% B:0,14%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,532...+0,544) Duration: 20,5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

• Payment due?
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 2:23 a.m.
  • Payment due?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
  • Payment due?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 2:55 a.m.
  • Payment due?
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Payment due? -- Rollout
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 9:25 p.m.
    • Payment due? -- Rollout
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 9:57 p.m.
      • Rollout: 1ply/3ply, but good enough for me
        Klaus Evers -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 10:20 p.m.
        • Rollout: 1ply/3ply, but good enough for me
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 11:12 p.m.
          • Fill in Board, then Pick and Pass
            Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 12:41 a.m.
            • We agree *NM*
              neilkaz -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 12:43 a.m.
            • Fill in Board, then Pick and Pass
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 1:23 a.m.
    • Payment due? -- Rollout
      neilkaz -- Monday, 2 August 2010, at 11:26 p.m.
      • Payment due? -- Rollout #2
        Stick -- Tuesday, 3 August 2010, at 3:58 a.m.