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Doubling at -3/-7 and -3/-8

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 5:32 a.m.

In Response To: Stick's Theory of Doubling at -3/-6 (Paul Weaver)

Assume (1) White leads in the match by a score of -3/-7 or -3/-8, (2) the position has a lot of contact and (3) a significant % of White's wins are gammons.

Two issues have been under discussion in this forum:

(1) Is White always either NGE (not good enough to double) or TGTD (too good to double)?

(2) Does White ever have a double by a significant margin (let's say .05)?

The five rollouts posted below answer these questions.





is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 151
11 point match
pip: 133
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-b--ABCBBA--cB---dBd-b----:0:0:1:00:8:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 79.37% (G: 20.45% B: 1.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.63% (G: 3.88% B: 0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.96% (G: 24.04% B: 3.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.04% (G: 3.78% B: 0.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.777
Double:+1.404
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.908 (-0.083)
Double/Take:+0.992
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.008)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.900...+0.917)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.977...+1.006)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 86.4%
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 140
11 point match
pip: 129
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBCB--A-dC-B-bbdb-----:0:0:1:00:8:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 78.19% (G: 13.56% B: 0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.81% (G: 2.39% B: 0.11%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.67% (G: 13.24% B: 0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.33% (G: 2.10% B: 0.12%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.678
Double:+1.285
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.919 (-0.081)
Double/Take:+1.008 (+0.008)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5553 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.911...+0.926)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.999...+1.018)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 95.2%
Duration: 3 hours 36 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 149
11 point match
pip: 129
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-aa-BBC-BB--dC---c-dA---b-:0:0:1:00:8:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 79.92% (G: 23.10% B: 1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.08% (G: 3.29% B: 0.10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.47% (G: 22.26% B: 2.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.53% (G: 2.94% B: 0.26%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.817
Double:+1.435
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.941 (-0.055)
Double/Take:+0.996
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.004)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.934...+0.948)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.982...+1.009)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 72.7%
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 145
11 point match
pip: 130
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-b-B-BCBB---cB---c-eB--b--:0:0:1:00:8:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 80.37% (G: 21.63% B: 2.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.63% (G: 2.93% B: 0.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.52% (G: 24.03% B: 4.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.48% (G: 2.61% B: 0.17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.826
Double:+1.470
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.933 (-0.067)
Double/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5515 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.924...+0.942)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.014...+1.042)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 100
11 point match
pip: 125
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCBBBA-Ab-----bdB-bbb-:0:0:1:00:8:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 82.19% (G: 12.32% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.81% (G: 2.82% B: 0.07%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83.43% (G: 12.66% B: 0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16.57% (G: 2.35% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.749
Double:+1.456
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.922 (-0.078)
Double/Take:+1.175 (+0.175)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.914...+0.929)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+1.162...+1.188)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 45 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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