Below is the GnuBG rollout, as promised. In New Ideas in Backgammon, the double-hit is claimed to be clearly best, but the 46k rollout results reveals that the anchor-and-down play is "tied" (by Ballard/Weaver scale).
[The Snowie rollout also has the top two plays tied (within .001, in fact), though only 5k. I'll post that rollout separately.]
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | bar/21 13/5*/1* | +0.1288 |
| | | 52.42 | 18.08 | 0.80 | - | 47.58 | 13.73 | 0.80 | +0.0918 | +0.1288 | | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | - | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.0009 | 0.0022 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807195572 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | bar/21 24/20(2) 13/9 | +0.1230 ( -0.0058) |
| | | 52.64 | 12.12 | 0.53 | - | 47.36 | 9.63 | 0.33 | +0.0797 | +0.1230 | | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | - | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.0007 | 0.0018 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807195572 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | bar/21 24/20 13/5* | +0.0817 ( -0.0470) |
| | | 52.12 | 14.65 | 0.93 | - | 47.88 | 14.70 | 0.90 | +0.0422 | +0.0817 | | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.09 | - | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.0039 | 0.0092 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 807195572 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
