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31P-32 3 ply

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 10:49 p.m.

In Response To: 31P-32 3 ply (David Rockwell)

Here's my 10k. One of my current projects is sending you a summary of what I have at 3 ply. That's why you don't have this yet.

Thanks, David. There's no hurry to get me results, partial or otherwise (though I understand why you did so in this case). It's not even necessary to let me know the positions you have on the hopper, unless they're near the top of Ken's queue (that I periodically update you with) -- the main issue is to avoid duplication.

Z is a clear winner as we would have expected.

Indeed, a bigger winner than I would have expected! I predict that with extension beyond 10k that XG's current .022 margin will narrow (i.e., towards Snowie's .006 and Gnu's .008).

Thanks for diligently rolling out the weaker plays to a 5k minimum. As you and I have discussed and agreed, the problem with fewer trials in early game rollouts is that one sees unreliable margins. We're not solely interested in finding out the best play. If a 1k or 2k rollout tells us the margin is .05 and it's really .02 or .03, or vice versa (and I've seen even bigger deviances), it harms our intuition. Moreover, it takes a bit of extra time to transcribe each play. We'd rather have data that is meaningful.

Nack

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