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double action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 6 August 2010, at 3:27 p.m.

In Response To: double action (alex21)

My OTB estimates are that the leader's takepoint ATS is right around the normal 25%, gammon values heavily favor the trailer by 56%/28%, and the trailer's 4-cube takepoint (on anything but a last roll position) is 9%. How many g's does each side win? Black has 18 ways to hit one or more of White's 3 blots (this total includes 51 played B/20 6/5x) and he might be able to sweep up all 3 if he starts with a 4. 5 of the 11 4s hit twice, D5 closes the board and makes Black a fav to close out two checkers, and the gammon threat is very much alive after any hit/dance sequence. I'd guess 25% gammons for Black here. How about White's gammon chances? Less than Black's since Black has only 2 blots, White's 3s are duped, White has the weaker board, and White shouldn't try too hard to get the g ATS. I'll guess 15% g's for White. These g's raise the leader's takepoint to around 35%. Cube vig is probably worth about 1% so the leader needs 34% cubeless chances to take.

I think White wins at least 40% here so it looks like a take. Definitely a double for the trailer ATS since hit/fan is such a huge mkt loss and also since some people will pass to protect their lead.

Messages In This Thread

• double action
  alex21 -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 12:42 p.m.
  • double action
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 3:27 p.m.
    • double action
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 6 August 2010, at 5:07 p.m.
  • double action
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 7 August 2010, at 6:48 p.m.