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Rollouts Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 7 August 2010, at 12:43 p.m.

In Response To: Checker Play For White, Cube Action for Black? (Paul Weaver)

The correct play is 13/8 13/7. Second best (my play over the board) is 13/2. Third is 13/7 6/1*. Correct cube action is Double/Take after all three plays.

Why is the 23-shot play (13/8 13/7) better than the 11-shot play (13/2)?

If you are not hit, you are much better off having the checkers on the 7pt and 8pt than one on the 2pt. If you are hit, 13/8 13/7 leaves you with a ninth checker in the zone, a spare on the 8pt. If you are hit after 13/2, you have only eight checkers in the zone.

There is also the matter of duplication. Black's aces (other than 11) are lousy. A lot of Black's 6s and 4s are good anyway. In particular, Black's 66 44 and 22 are jokers regardless of the play you make. Black's 64 and 42 are strong anchoring rolls. Black's 65 63 and 54 are strong running-to-safety rolls.

Summary: Playing 13/2 gives Black great aces, a lot of good 6s and 4s, a suboptimal position if missed, and a lousy position if hit.

Four rollouts are posted below.





is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 149
9 point match
pip: 150
score: 6

is peever
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---cF---bbdb---A-:0:0:1:65:6:0:0:9:10
to play 65

1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.765
Player:
Opponent:		 38.39% (G:10.46% B:1.40%)
61.61% (G:19.23% B:0.72%)		Conf: ± 0.023 (-0.788...-0.742)
Duration: 14 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout113/2eq: -0.810 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		 38.47% (G:10.70% B:1.26%)
61.53% (G:21.41% B:0.61%)		Conf: ± 0.022 (-0.832...-0.788)
Duration: 13 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 6/1* eq: -0.839 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		 37.84% (G:10.98% B:0.89%)
62.16% (G:21.42% B:0.95%)		Conf: ± 0.022 (-0.861...-0.817)
Duration: 15 minutes 32 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 149
9 point match
pip: 139
score: 6

is peever
XGID=-aAaB-D-B---cE---bbdb---A-:0:0:-1:00:6:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.59% (G: 20.08% B: 0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.41% (G: 10.44% B: 1.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.41% (G: 21.41% B: 0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.59% (G: 10.68% B: 1.47%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.309
Double:+0.828
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.759 (-0.048)
Double/Take:+0.808
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.192)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.741...+0.777)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.787...+0.829)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 45 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 149
9 point match
pip: 139
score: 6

is peever
XGID=-a-aB-DAC---cD---bbdb---A-:0:0:-1:00:6:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.56% (G: 18.68% B: 0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.44% (G: 10.39% B: 0.99%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.89% (G: 19.22% B: 0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.11% (G: 10.58% B: 1.43%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.299
Double:+0.798
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.696 (-0.074)
Double/Take:+0.770
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.230)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.678...+0.714)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.748...+0.792)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 52 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 150
9 point match
pip: 139
score: 6

is peever
XGID=aA-aB-CAB---cE---bbdb---A-:0:0:-1:00:6:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.91% (G: 20.62% B: 0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.09% (G: 10.42% B: 0.76%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.31% (G: 21.23% B: 0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.69% (G: 10.61% B: 1.27%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.328
Double:+0.868
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.758 (-0.088)
Double/Take:+0.846
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.154)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.740...+0.776)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.823...+0.869)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 53 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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