On the 22 play and also on the 42 play, there was a huge difference between the XG eval and the XG rollout.
         
   
        
 |  is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 186 | | 7 point match | pip: 162
score: 0
 is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=ab-B--C-CB--eB---c-d--A-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10 |
| on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout |
| No Double |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.64% (G: 25.61% B: 2.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.36% (G: 8.13% B: 0.74%) |
| Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.77% (G: 25.70% B: 2.67%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.23% (G: 8.00% B: 0.87%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.450 |
| Double: | +0.939 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.664 |
| Double/Take: | +0.629 (-0.035) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.336) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No Double / Take |
| |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply |
| |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.028 (+0.636...+0.691) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.032 (+0.596...+0.661) |
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 94.6% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| |
| Duration: 51 minutes 44 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
 
   
| is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 179 | | 7 point match | pip: 125
score: 0
is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-baBBBBB----dC--acBca-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:7:10 |
| to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 16/14 13/9 | eq: +1.123 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.70% (G:44.80% B:8.19%)
27.30% (G:1.56% B:0.10%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.117...+1.129)
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16*(2) 16/14 13/11 | eq: +1.121 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.98% (G:44.17% B:7.92%)
27.02% (G:1.48% B:0.08%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.115...+1.127)
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/16*(2) 4/2*(2) | eq: +1.120 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.41% (G:49.40% B:8.27%)
26.59% (G:1.95% B:0.10%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.113...+1.127)
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 16/14 13/11(2) | eq: +1.120 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.31% (G:44.61% B:8.41%)
27.69% (G:1.69% B:0.12%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.113...+1.127)
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 13/11 13/9 | eq: +1.117 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.58% (G:45.15% B:8.31%)
27.42% (G:1.80% B:0.13%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.110...+1.124)
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 18/16*(2) 13/11(2) | eq: +1.114 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.73% (G:43.94% B:7.73%)
27.27% (G:1.56% B:0.08%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.108...+1.120)
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 13/11 4/2*(2) | eq: +1.111 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.17% (G:49.58% B:8.35%)
26.83% (G:2.15% B:0.14%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.104...+1.118)
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 18/16* 13/11(3) | eq: +1.107 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.04% (G:43.88% B:8.05%)
27.96% (G:1.61% B:0.09%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.100...+1.114)
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 192 | | 7 point match | pip: 117
score: 0
is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBaBBB----dC--Bc-ca-----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10 |
| to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/10 | eq: +0.925 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.84% (G:36.17% B:5.12%)
33.16% (G:3.88% B:0.21%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.914...+0.936)
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 | eq: +0.904 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.86% (G:34.86% B:5.02%)
33.14% (G:3.57% B:0.18%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.895...+0.913)
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 13/9 | eq: +0.903 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.24% (G:35.69% B:5.02%)
32.76% (G:4.02% B:0.21%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.892...+0.914)
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 16/14 13/9 | eq: +0.894 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.99% (G:35.56% B:5.69%)
36.01% (G:5.78% B:0.38%) | Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.876...+0.912)
Duration: 43 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 5. | 3 ply | 13/9 7/5 | eq: +0.834 (-0.090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.47% (G:35.03% B:5.29%)
35.53% (G:5.64% B:0.18%) | |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
  
| is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 187 | | 7 point match | pip: 111
score: 0
is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBaBBC----dB--Bb-bba----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:7:10 |
| to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/15 16/11 | eq: +0.886 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.34% (G:34.45% B:5.17%)
34.66% (G:3.73% B:0.18%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.881...+0.891)
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/11 7/6 | eq: +0.879 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.40% (G:35.99% B:5.54%)
34.60% (G:3.93% B:0.23%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.871...+0.887)
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/8 7/6 | eq: +0.829 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.88% (G:34.93% B:5.92%)
36.12% (G:5.07% B:0.31%) | Conf: ± 0.021 (+0.808...+0.850)
Duration: 18 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross