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double action

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Saturday, 7 August 2010, at 6:48 p.m.

In Response To: double action (alex21)

ATS it is nearly allways a double with some advantage combined with gammon threat and market loosers. Consider this :




is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 167
9 point match
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:6:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 52.34% (G: 14.41% B: 0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.66% (G: 12.31% B: 0.49%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.067
Double:+0.317
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.341
Double/Take:+0.309 (-0.033)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.659)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Of course this is a ND/T, but it is close. In fact double is be correct if you think 5% will pass. So, definetely a Double for me. On the 2 cube gammon price is .633/.309 for trailer/leader. How high is a gammon rate? Black doesnt get gammoned too ofen as he has 2 blots, and 2 points to enter in a position where White cannot freely attack him considering Blacks 5pt board. I d say 10-15 prcent, or average 12.5. I d say white gets gammoned about 25 percent of the time. Whites takepoint adjusted for gammons is 23.3 + .63x25 - 12.5x.3=35.3 His recube vig is small considering the score. Lets make his takepoint 34.5 Does he win this ofen? I think he does.Black dances with 16 number, after which white is a big favourite. Perhaps 3 to 1 favourite. Thats 12 wins alone. he only needs 1/2 more wins to justify the take, so i can stop right here. Take is clear. D/T.

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